Tuesday, September 20, 2011

(NO) Moneyball

Well folks, there is no use sitting here and going over the last week of Pirates baseball. While the season has been unofficially over for about a month or so, it's now turned into  complete I don't care mode. Luckily, the team has adopted the same attitude; they just get paid a hell of a lot more to suck than I do. As an homage to the Nutting Style of baseball, I am going to take the focus off of the current product at hand and discuss a few things that are mildly related.

I have seen the trailers for the upcoming film Moneyball, starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane, Jonah Hill as 'Peter Brand' (based on former Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta), and Philip Seymour Hoffman as Pittsburgher and fellow Shaler Alumni Art Howe. This trailer made me wonder about a few things. #1.) In Hollywood, where appearance seems to mean everything, why did they cast 2 fat guys to play skinny guys? and #2.) How long until somebody writes a book and/or makes a movie about the Pirates of the last 19 seasons, perhaps entitled "No-Moneyball"?. It could be out there already, but I was too lazy to take 10 seconds to do a Google search.

Normally, sports books and movies go one of four ways. The first is chronicling the success of a particular player or franchise with examples such as the films 'Miracle' or 'Pride of the Yankees'. The second is covering scandals such as the movie ' Eight Men Out' or the novel ' The Pittsburgh Cocaine Seven'. Third is the screwball comedy we've seen with 'Major League' and 'Bull Durham'. Number four is the kids genre with epics like 'The Sandlot', 'Little Big League' and 'Rookie of the Year' among many,many, many, many, many,many others.

In this blogger's opinion, a book and/or movie about the last 2 decades of Pirates baseball could encompass the first three without a doubt. While on the surface it would appear that this team's 19 straight losing records is not a marker of success in any fashion, you have to face the facts at some point and admit just how impressive it is to go that long without a winning season. I mean, you almost have to try to suck that bad. For the scandal part, much has recently been made about the true intentions of the ownership and management group's intentions for this ballclub. Using a tax payer funded venue to churn out profit year after year while taking no personal risk has drawn the ire of many Pirates fan who are sick of losing and the Nutting's miserly ways. Interestingly enough, the same reason the story could be classified under the first category is also the same it would fall under #3, the screwball comedy: 19 straight losing seasons. That's laughable in and of itself.


Had 2011 gone differently for the Bucs, had they sustained that over-their-head pace of play, a novel would probably be in the works as we speak. The true underdog story of a once proud franchise looking to recapture the hearts of it's fans and put itself back on a national stage. Everybody loves those kinds of  underdog stories where the little guy triumphs over it's competition against all odds. Nobody likes a loser, especially not 19 in row. Look at Major League; they sucked for about 10 minutes before they were deadset in a pennant race with the Yankees. Therefore, the story of the Pirates woes heads back into development hell with Duke Nukem Forever and Chinese Democracy.

Wait, those have both been released? Really? Next you're going to tell me that Ghostbusters III is going to be green lit before the Bucs have a winning season............

Maybe it is time to start chronicling the bad years. After all, those who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it, right?

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

19 years and counting

Following Wednesday's 3-2 loss to St. Louis, the Pirates dropped their 82nd game this season.
Regardless of what happens the rest of the season, Pittsburgh will finish below .500 for the 19th consecutive year.
In the aforementioned stretch of bad baseball, the Buccos' closest 79 wins in 1997 and 78 in 1999.
Maybe it's because that was the first year I started paying close attention to baseball, it's caused me to be more cynical as each year passes, but I really believe the 1999 team had the best chance of breaking the mark, even though the '97 squad had 0ne more win.
In '99, Jason Kendall missed more than half the season, Brian Giles and Ed Sprague went down for part of the season, but they still managed to put it together. They had some decent power, strong pitching and I really think they could've done it had Kendall not went down.
I know, coulda, woulda, shoulda, but that was a decent team. I still remember Warren Morris' strong rookie campaign. He sure fell off the face of the Earth. Plus, Todd Richie's 15 wins, Kris Benson before Anna, or maybe after, but what a crazy lady, and I use that term loosley, and Frankie Cordova.
Al Martin wasn't bad, but they just couldn't quite put it together. That team wasn't the best fielding club, either.
I was optimistic after that, but the team went from bad to worse. They lost 100 games the year PNC Park opened, has some decent clubs in 2004 and 2005, hosted an All-Star game in 2006 and had some individual honors like Nate McClouth winning a gold glove, a batting champion in Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay winning the rookie of the year award.
Even with all that, Pittsburgh's hasn't seen winning baseball since '92.
They have improved this year, but I don't think it will matter. You have to realize that pre-July 28, the pitching was out of its mind, but the rest of the components weren't there.
I don't think the pitchers will perform like that next year. They are trying to keep the core guys, but outside Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and maybe Jose Tabata, I don't think it's good enough.
I say it will be a long time before we see winning baseball in Pittsburgh. I may be drawing social security by then.
Eh, maybe not.

On The Verge

After last night's disappointing loss (aren't they all?), the Bucs now stand on the doorstep of extending their own record for putrid performance. With 81 losses heading into today's game with the Cards, the Bucs are looking to make it 19 straight and if their second half performance is any indication, there is no end in sight.

The Bucs appeared poised to take another one from the Cards last evening, but another unbelievably bad call negated a run that would have sent the Bucs into the 9th with a lead. However, as is always the case when playing LaRussa and his Cards, the ump completely blew the call at 3rd and gave the Cards a huge break.

On the play in question, Derrek Lee hit a fly ball to right field and upon the ball hitting Berkman's mitt, Ciriaco took off from third base. After he crossed the plate, the Cardinals appealed to third base, probably because the umpire told them to, and they were awarded an out and the run was negated. Extensive replays CLEARLY showed Ciriaco left on time, but unfortunately the call was unable to be overruled because MLB replay only applies to plays that don't completely screw the Pirates.

After the game, LaRussa was about to address the call but passed out drunk behind his desk because he thought it was his Cadillac.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Three More Years of Opie


The Buccos have officially announced what many of us already deemed to be a foregone conclusion: Opie, aka Bad Deal Neal, has been extended. Those Commissioner's Trophies behind Neal are a Mirage.

Huntington's tenure has been at best average and at worst  extremely disappointing. He brought in Jose Tabata and Jeff Karstens ( along with The Guy Who Cried and Ross Awfuldorhf) in exchange for oft injured Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, who played the most unimportant position in baseball. BTW, Prince Fielder was 2 for 9 career against Marte with 2 singles and 3 Ks; Ryan Howard 0 for 3 with 3 Ks. Lefty specialists are overrated my @$$,.

In that same summer, Opie also dealt Jason Bay to the Red Sox in a deal that saw the Sox get Bay, the Dodgers get Manny Ramirez, and the Bucs get Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss. I don't need to rehash how that one worked out, but let's just agree the Bucs were not the winners in that deal. These are 2 of his more notable deals and they certainly show both sides of the spectrum.

 As far as free agency goes, there isn't a whole lot write home about. Overbay and Diaz were the most recent disasters, with neither doing anything to really help the young ball club along. Correia started out looking like a real find but shrunk back down to his career levels of mediocrity. GI Jones is similar, sometimes looking like a diamond in the rough and others looking like the guy we got off the Twins scrap heap. There is also the Dana Eveland years of control signing. And Hayden Penn. Letting Matt Capps walk and getting ZERO in return. And so on and so forth.

In terms of the draft, Neal has gotten high marks all across the boards for his picks and signings. However, the tangible results range from mixed to TBD. Alvarez was the Bucs #1 pick in 2008, Opie's first draft, and was widely expected to be the savior of the franchise. While he had a strong September last year, it took a while to get acclimated and any progress he made appears to have been lost since the end of the last season. 2011 has been nothing short of awful for Kdro, not even accounting for injuries.

In the 2009 Draft, the Bucs went back to their old ways and took  singable BC catcher Tony Sanchez 4th overall despite the fact that most believed Sanchez to be the 29th best player available. Sanchez has been a disappointment in the minors and has also faced a myriad of injuries. The Bucs were able to use some of their savings from Sanchez to draft and sign Zack Von Rosenberg, who is 5-9 with a 5.73 ERA for the WV Power Single A club. However, he is still young, though, about 2 weeks shy of 21 and could prove to be a solid pitcher down the road.

In 2010, the Bucs had a well received draft by DOING WHAT THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO DO and picking Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie, 2 guys with 4 last names. Taillon is a few months shy of 20 and 2-3 with a 3.98 ERA at Single A, showing a good bit of upside. Allie, who turned 20 in March, is struggling at Low A State College with a 6.98 ERA and an 0-2 record.

In the most recent draft, the Bucs drafted Gerrrrrritttttt Cole from UCLA and Josh Bell, a HS 3rd Baseman haled by many as the best offensive player in the draft. Despite speculation that Bell was 100% set on signing with the Texas Longhorns, the Bucs hammered out a deal to bring him on board. If these guys do anything close to  living up to their hype, the Bucs will have 2 legitimate studs in positions of great need.

So there you have the very brief Cliff's Note version of Huntington's career in Pittsburgh so far, glossing over FAR more moves than I covered. My overall grade for Opie thus far would be a  very generous INCOMPLETE. He was named GM in September 2007 and that team finished 68-94, a .420 winning percentage. Since the takeover, the Bucs Record is 252-379, a .399 winning percentage. An old adage states "it's going to get worse before it gets better"; but how much worse can it get?

Thursday, September 8, 2011

What Should We Expect in 2012?

In a quick few words: more of the same.

Major League Baseball has the longest season amongst the 4 major sports and as a result a great deal of depth is needed to success for the entire duration. The 2011 Bucs played over their heads for the first half of the season, but ultimately fell into their old habits heading into the July 31st deadline. But all is not entirely lost in what will soon be the club's 19th STRAIGHT losing season as some of the young players showed some real promise as well as progress. However, there are still far too many questions looming over this team to start making a bold prediction that the streak will end in 2012.

The first bright spot for the Bucs is the emergence of Andrew McCutchen from a very good MLB player to a perennial All-Star caliber player. While his .269 overall average isn't overly impressive, the 22 Homers, 86 RBI, and 20 SB with 81 runs scored certainly are. Those numbers prove Cutch has the potential to be a 30/30 guy as well as drive in 100 runs if he consistently hits in the middle of the lineup

Next is Joel Hanrahan. While many people justifiably downplay the role of a closer, The Hammer has 36 saves in 39 attempts for a team currently sitting at 66 wins. His ERA of 1.58 ranks 2nd amongst NL closers, only .01 behind NL Saves leader Craig Kimbrel of Atlanta.  His whip of 0.99 and his 55 to 14 K to BB ratio is equally impressive.

Another Bucco who has been productive this year is Neil Walker, hitting .270 with 12 HR and 79 RBI. Not bad from a second baseman but he could certainly stand to cut down on the K's and GIDPs.

Even with those players in the mix for next season, the Bucs still have a plethora of questions facing them as the season winds down. So I am putting it to you loyal few to weigh on on how you would handle these situations and/or what you expect the Bucs to handle them.

#1) What to do with First Base? 
#2.) How would you handle Maholm and Doumit in the off-season?
#3.) What do you expect to see from Pedro Alvarez in 2012?
#4.) How do you expect the starting pitchers to fare in 2012?
#5.) What should the Bucs do with SS?

My answers:
#1.) Personally, I don't look for the Bucs to do anything on the FA market. Carlos Pena will be available but he has hit only 7 HR since the Break, 19 prior and will probably be looking for more than $10M per year. Cuddyer would be a great addition but probably out of our price range. Internally,  Jones is probably the best candidate, but I would give Matt Hague a long look in spring training. Nothing against GI Jones, but he is VERY streaky.
#2.) I would try to negotiate a deal each of them, but attempt to avoid picking up their options. Not because I would hesistate spending money, just spending that kind of money on them. Although Maholm's numbers do merit close to what his option is priced. a longer term deal may save a few dollars to allocate elsewhere. Doumis might look Irish, but he must be Italian, cause he's fragile , especially for $7.25M.
#3.) Well, how much worse can he get? Derrek Lee's hit more HR as a Pirate this season despite 47 less games in a Bucco uniform. Perdo has the tools, his swing is definitely money. But he seems to me like the pressure gets the better of him. I'll look for him to hit .245 with 22 HR and 70 RBI in 2012, although he is capable of FAR more.
#4.) That is tough to assess without knowing whether Maholm will be back. But I expect Correia to be the same guy he has always been. Start out solid and fade into the season. I expect Morton to improve yet again as he finds his comfort zone. I don't see Karstens doing as well as in 2011 but look for J-Mac to break out next year.
#5.) Throw some money at JJ Hardy. 26 HR and 68 RBI in 110 games this season while earning about $6M with the Orioles. He has 5 errors and a fielding perecentage of .990. His career averages per 162 games played are .263 with 22 HR and 77 RBI and a fielding % of .980 as well as zero career bases loaded bunts.

The Bucs obviously will have many more questions facing them this offseason, so feel free to add those to the discussion. (i.e. all speed, no power from corner OF or the bullpen, etc.)

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

D-Lee for MVP

What a weekend for the Buc sand Derrek Lee. After dropping a Thursday afternoon sandwich game to the Dodgers and being shut down by Dana freaking Eveland, the Bucs bounced back to take 2 out of 3 from the Cubbies and the series opener from the Astros yesterday afternoon.

Friday's 3-1 win at the friendly confines saw roster expansion beneficiary Brian "One 'S' " Burres got 5.1 IP surrendering only a solo HR to Carlos Pena and fanning 5 while only walking one. The bullpen didn't allow a hit and with some timely hitting, including a pair of triples from the King, the pulled out the W. The Hammer notched his 33rd save in the victory.

Saturday's game featured some unheralded late game heroics from Derrek Lee upon his return from the DL. I did not see the game live, as I was witnessing some 87 Super Unleaded Football, but Lee's dramatics are certainly noteworthy. With the Bucs trailing 5-3 with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, Lee found himself at the plate with the bases juiced full of Pirates. He was already 2 for 4 with an RBI in his first game back since Marmol broke his hand,  but Lee had bigger things on his mind, sending a Marmol offering into the bleachers for a grand slam. UNREAL. The Hammer worked a scoreless 9th for the 2nd straight outing the Bucs were 7-5 victors.

Sunday's battle was part 1,000 in the Charlie Morton Jekyll/Hyde Show. Morton only went 4.1 innings, allowing 4 runs, 3 of which were earned, giving up 7 hits and walking 5 to only 2 K. While his 9-9 W/L record and 3.81 ERA on the season are a vast improvement over last year, Morton's 1.54 WHIP is less than impressive. He 96 K to 68 BB on the year.... Offensively, D-Lee went 3 for 4 with and RBI and the Pride of PR went yard for his 12th of the season, but it wasn't enough to overcome the less than stellar pitching and defense, highlighted by Suckdeno's 2 errors. With 13 Errors for the season, and some generous scoring at home ignoring a few more, Cedeno is 8th in the NL for errors amongst SS.

Yesterday, J-Mac continued a solid season in earning his 9th win of the season. McDonald went 7.1IP, allowing 3 hits and 3 BB while fanning 6 and allowing only 1 run. Trailing 1-0, Doumit and Ole Harrison gave the Bucs a 2-1 lead in the 4th with an RBI double and single respectively. D-Lee homered in the 9th to add some insurance and the Hammer worked the 9th for his 3rd save in the last 4 games, giving him 35 on the season.

This has been a nice little run from the Bucs. While there is nothing really left to salvage, there are some questions worth asking.

#1 is what to do with Derrek Lee? In his 8 games with the Buccos, he's batting .400 (12 for 30) with 4 HR and 10 RBI and an OPS of 1.304. If the Bucs don't make a serious effort to resign him, especially with Overpaid and Diaz having gone by the wayside, the cash should be there.

BTW, Huntington should win GM of the year for getting the Braves to take Diaz off our hands last week, even if he is 6 for 11 with the Braves. He still has no RBI and 0 XBH. How is that possible? My guess if fish fillets to RF against lefties

#2- What about Josh Harrison? Speaking of fish fillets, Harrison is never going to be revered for his power, but he has proved that he can hit MLB pitching at a decent clip. At the very least, he can be a good bat off the bench, but with his mediocre fielding and playing a position that has been designated for Kdro, I am not sure where he fits in the big picture. With that said, I like Harrison and what he brings to the table. But with an OF full of speed and little power, 3B is a position where the Bucs will need to see some serious pop.

#3- J-Mac is the 2nd half CY Young for the Bucs with a 3.26 ERA and 54 K to 21 BB since the All-Star Break.  He always seems to be the guy that people are uncertain on, but I think he has the right set of tools as well as desire to succeed. From what I have seen, McDonald isn't afraid to pitch to contact when he needs outs. Many "strikeout" pitchers would be far too happy with trying to paint the corners and walk a ton of guys, ahem, Kip Wells, but J-Mac's K to BB ratio has gone from roughly 1.59 : 1 before the break to 2.57 : 1 since.

With only 21 games left, it will interesting to see how the Bucs finish this one out. While the season has been an overall disappointment, there are some pieces in place that make it look as though the Bucs may one day be a competitive MLB team.

It's just REALLY hard to say when that day might be

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Pirates' marketing department is the best in baseball

The Pirates are first in baseball at one thing: Marketing.
As bad as this team has been, they still draw decent crowds, but it's all a novelty. People don't go to games to watch baseball. They go for a show. Or to see the other team.
Fireworks, bobbleheads, free T-shirts, concerts and more. If baseball was played in the winter, no one would go. Families enjoy taking their kids to the games, and there is nothing wrong with that, but it's more to do something than really watch a baseball game. I doubt most of those families sit down and actually watch a game on TV.
I do believe PNC Park would be soldout nearly every game if the Bucs had the success of the Steelers or Penguins. I have never doubted Pittsburgh fans' passion for the hometown team, but everybody wants to watch a loser.
Case in point to that passion was everyone making reservations for the playoffs when Pittsuburgh had a lead in the division race after the All-Star game.
I give them props for getting people to the game and making money. Although, they are not concerned with the product on the field.
I also know that most sports have sideshow attractions. Every sport, every hockey, parades good looking girls on the sidelines. I like a pretty girl as much as the next guy, but they have nothing to do with the game, although sex sells.
I don't know how it was 30 years ago at sporting events, but times sure have changed.
Enjoy the rest of the baseball season, but I'm sure most of you all are thinking about next Sunday when the Steelers travel to Baltimore.