Thursday, September 8, 2011

What Should We Expect in 2012?

In a quick few words: more of the same.

Major League Baseball has the longest season amongst the 4 major sports and as a result a great deal of depth is needed to success for the entire duration. The 2011 Bucs played over their heads for the first half of the season, but ultimately fell into their old habits heading into the July 31st deadline. But all is not entirely lost in what will soon be the club's 19th STRAIGHT losing season as some of the young players showed some real promise as well as progress. However, there are still far too many questions looming over this team to start making a bold prediction that the streak will end in 2012.

The first bright spot for the Bucs is the emergence of Andrew McCutchen from a very good MLB player to a perennial All-Star caliber player. While his .269 overall average isn't overly impressive, the 22 Homers, 86 RBI, and 20 SB with 81 runs scored certainly are. Those numbers prove Cutch has the potential to be a 30/30 guy as well as drive in 100 runs if he consistently hits in the middle of the lineup

Next is Joel Hanrahan. While many people justifiably downplay the role of a closer, The Hammer has 36 saves in 39 attempts for a team currently sitting at 66 wins. His ERA of 1.58 ranks 2nd amongst NL closers, only .01 behind NL Saves leader Craig Kimbrel of Atlanta.  His whip of 0.99 and his 55 to 14 K to BB ratio is equally impressive.

Another Bucco who has been productive this year is Neil Walker, hitting .270 with 12 HR and 79 RBI. Not bad from a second baseman but he could certainly stand to cut down on the K's and GIDPs.

Even with those players in the mix for next season, the Bucs still have a plethora of questions facing them as the season winds down. So I am putting it to you loyal few to weigh on on how you would handle these situations and/or what you expect the Bucs to handle them.

#1) What to do with First Base? 
#2.) How would you handle Maholm and Doumit in the off-season?
#3.) What do you expect to see from Pedro Alvarez in 2012?
#4.) How do you expect the starting pitchers to fare in 2012?
#5.) What should the Bucs do with SS?

My answers:
#1.) Personally, I don't look for the Bucs to do anything on the FA market. Carlos Pena will be available but he has hit only 7 HR since the Break, 19 prior and will probably be looking for more than $10M per year. Cuddyer would be a great addition but probably out of our price range. Internally,  Jones is probably the best candidate, but I would give Matt Hague a long look in spring training. Nothing against GI Jones, but he is VERY streaky.
#2.) I would try to negotiate a deal each of them, but attempt to avoid picking up their options. Not because I would hesistate spending money, just spending that kind of money on them. Although Maholm's numbers do merit close to what his option is priced. a longer term deal may save a few dollars to allocate elsewhere. Doumis might look Irish, but he must be Italian, cause he's fragile , especially for $7.25M.
#3.) Well, how much worse can he get? Derrek Lee's hit more HR as a Pirate this season despite 47 less games in a Bucco uniform. Perdo has the tools, his swing is definitely money. But he seems to me like the pressure gets the better of him. I'll look for him to hit .245 with 22 HR and 70 RBI in 2012, although he is capable of FAR more.
#4.) That is tough to assess without knowing whether Maholm will be back. But I expect Correia to be the same guy he has always been. Start out solid and fade into the season. I expect Morton to improve yet again as he finds his comfort zone. I don't see Karstens doing as well as in 2011 but look for J-Mac to break out next year.
#5.) Throw some money at JJ Hardy. 26 HR and 68 RBI in 110 games this season while earning about $6M with the Orioles. He has 5 errors and a fielding perecentage of .990. His career averages per 162 games played are .263 with 22 HR and 77 RBI and a fielding % of .980 as well as zero career bases loaded bunts.

The Bucs obviously will have many more questions facing them this offseason, so feel free to add those to the discussion. (i.e. all speed, no power from corner OF or the bullpen, etc.)

1 comment:

  1. Opie gets extended, what a joke. Guaranteed losing seasons 20, 21, and 22 coming up.

    ReplyDelete