Wednesday, July 13, 2011

You Get What You Give

With the MLB non-waiver trade deadline a little less than 3 weeks away and the Bucs right in the thick of the NL Central race, let's discuss a few trade possibilities. Feel free to agree, disagree, modify, or add any perceived scenarios in the comments section:

Who I'd Like to See, But Probably Won't:
Carlos Pena- 1B- Cubs: Pena has excellent power, with 19 HR and 49 RBI at the break. His batting average is low at .225 but his OPS is a solid .801. He is 5h in the NL in K's with 88 but also 5th in BB with 49. He would have about  $5 Million remaining on his salary for the year and in order to not give up much more than mid-level prospect, the Bucs would likely have to take on the entire salary.

Carlos Beltran-OF- Mets- Beltran is a switch hitter with good power and run driving ability. He appears to perhaps be a bit fragile and certainly "enigmatic" but he can play the short RF at PNC and definitely has the middle of lineup, corner OF bat we are lacking. The catch is, he still has over $9 million remaining on his salary and in order take that entire amount on, I wouldn't want to give up anything more than a bucket of balls.

Hunter Pence- RF- Astros- Pence can hit for high average and certainly adds some middle of the lineup pop. He has 11 HR and 60 RBI with an .860 OPS. He can also play RF fairly well and has an above average throwing arm. He still has about $3.5 Million remaining for this season, which is almost a bargain. HOWEVER, to get Pence we would have to give up somebody like Starling Marte. Even if Marte is blocked by the plethora of speedy outfielders with good gap power already ahead of him in the system, I don't think he is worth a summer rental.

Guys I Don't Want To See and Definitely Won't:
Aramis Ramirez-3B- Cubs- Plain and simple, I don't like the guy. I'm not saying he isn't talented or that his power stick at 3B would be a nice addition. He has a no trade clause he probably won't even lift to come here and we would have to give up a big return to fetch him in the first place. His club option next year is $16 Million with a 2 million dollar buyout and he would have $7.2M remaining for 2011. Paying $9.2 M and giving up a high ceiling prospect doesn't make sense to me, even with someone else's money. 

Alfonso Soriano-LF-Cubs- Since the Cubs are down and out yet have some high priced talent they could be looking to shed, Sori is the 3rd Cubs player on this list. He can certainly hit the ball out of the park, but he can't play LF at PNC. Moving to right would be an option, but his arm is terrible. He would also cost $9M for the rest of this season and another $54 through 2014. He may hit some home runs down the stretch, but definitely not worth that cash.

Mark Reynolds-3B-Orioles- Reynolds is the definition of a hacker. He is not a good fielder and he strikes out a ton. With that being said, he has 20 HR and 49 RBI and 36 of his 65 hits are for extra bases. Despite having 96 K's, he also has 50 BB and his .227 average is somewhat offset by his .839 OPS. And he's only 27. He would cost $2.5M the rest of the way this year, $7.5M next year, and has an $11M club option with a $500K buyout for 2013. While he is affordable and can certainly crush the ball, due to his age and fair contract, the Orioles would likely ask for a large return. Although if Reynolds could play 1B, it might not be a terrible investment.

Guys Who Me Might Potentially See:
Josh Willingham- LF/1B-A's- Willingham hasn't played 1B since 2009 and is primarily a LF, but can play RF at PNC Park. He has 11 HR and 44 RBI at the break with a .241 average and a .736 OPS. He would cost $3M the rest of the way and has no contract for next season. He averages 25 HR and 84 RBI per 162 games played. Since his contract is expiring and his production is decent, he might be had for a fair price.

Jeff Francoeur-OF- Royals- Francoeur is hitting .265 with 12 HR and 56 RBI on a bad Royals squad. He is slugging .443 but his OBP is a measly .308, striking out 66 times to only 20 BB. He has a good arm in RF and has stolen 15 bases this season, a career high by far. He comes cheap: $1.25M the rest of the way in 2011 and a $4M mutual option for 2012. His career averages are .268 with 20 HR and 90 RBI per 162 games played and could be a nice addition for a decent price.

J.J. Hardy-SS-Orioles- Of course I was going to try to find somebody to take Suckdeno's spot. Ronny has improved, but I think he is still too inconsistent to be safe. Hardy is hitting .278 with 13 HR and 33 RBI and his OPS is at .836. He averages 21 HR and 74 RBI over a full season for his career and would cost less than $3 million for the remainder of this season with no obligation for 2012. The expiring contract makes him a possibility.

Others I have heard mentioned:
Jason Giambi- .267 with 9 HR and 22 RBI in only 100 PA. $425K for 2011 and a $1M mutual option for 2012 w/$150K buyout.

Melky Cabrera- .293 witth 11 HR and 51 RBI. .332 OBP is lower than I'd like. Would only cost $612K for 2011 and nothing for 2012

Michael Cuddyer- .298 with 13 HR and 43 RBI and an .843 OPS. $5.25M for the remainder of 2011 and no obligation for 2012. Could certainly help but would likely cost a big prospect and it is unlikely he would be here past this season. Another case of not wanting to give up a high ceiling guy for a summer rental.

So there you have some possibilities. These are based strictly on opinion and nothing else. We have discussed many of these guys over the past few weeks, but as we are approaching trading season, it's looking like the Bucs may be buyers this year!

24 comments:

  1. With Tabata coming back soon(?) and Presley playing so well, I don't really want them to waste a trade on a rental outfielder. As for 1B and SS, yes yes yes!!

    How is Alvarez doing in AAA? If he comes back up and plays better, I wouldn't want a rental 3B either.

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  2. Presley can also play 1B, I think. So that is an option if a corner OF with power comes up.

    It would be interesting to see if Mark Reynolds can play 1B well enough, because his contract isn't bad for a guy that can belt 35-40 HR regularly.

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  3. Pedro is .261/.379/.348 with 0 HR and 5 RBI, and has just one more hit (6) than walks (5). Of those six hits, just two were for extra bases, both doubles.

    Not too good, is it chief?

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  4. The Brewers just got better. Time to make a counter move Neil.

    "NEW YORK - The Milwaukee Brewers got a quick start on the second half, picking up a big-time closer.

    The NL Central co-leaders acquired former All-Star reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the New York Mets on Tuesday night, boosting the Brewers' bullpen for a second-half run at the playoffs.

    The trade was announced only a half-hour after the All-Star game, with the Mets sending K-Rod and cash to Milwaukee for two players to be named.

    http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/43735100/

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  5. No, chef (ref that commercial "who are the chefs?"), it isn't.

    I actually believed the Pro-Nutters hype about him and how he'll be back and play as good as he did in Sept. last year. I should know better than believe anything a Pro-Nutter says. Shame on me!!

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  6. Sharky--

    For what it's worth, I was probably one of those people, although I became more and more skeptical as time went on. In all honesty, this is a good move because it allows Alvarez time to re-discover that good swing from last year. Look, he's not Adam Hyzdu; the dude posted 16 HR in half a season. It's not like he hit five HR in two weeks and then flamed out. In the words of Ryan Doumit, he'll hit, dude...I think.

    The K-Rod trade is largely based on finances, as PTBNL are typically never very good. According to Buster Olney, the key factor in the trade was that the Brewers were the team willing to take on the most salary. Also, if K-Rod finishes 21 more games this season (a near certainty, unless he gets hurt), then the Brewers owe him $17.5M next season. If I'm not mistaken, that would mean nearly $40M tied up in K-Rod and Ryan Braun next season.

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  7. This is Dog.
    I think Pedro will be promoted soon. I don't think he'll replicate his sept of last year until next year.

    With Presley playing so well just move Jones to 1st and Tabata to RF.

    I'm in favor of a trade for an upgrade virtually anywhere, but I don't want any one year rentals unless it is a B prospect that is given up. A Gorkys for example.

    The offense is actually doing better than people give it credit for lately. They are 7th in the NL in runs scored since June 1st. A little boost with Pedro, Tabata and Doumit could make this offense good enough, or not.
    Dog

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  8. Who is the real Dog?July 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

    I have my doubts that you are the Dog from Smizik's blog. If you were, you would be throwing insults at Sharky. You would also treat everyone all in your usual condescending manner.

    I am very skeptical.

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  9. Who is the real Dog?--

    If you're going to make an accusation, you would at least have the decency of including YOUR real name, wouldn't you?

    More info on the K-Rod trade: Olney is now reporting that the Mets had to eat 60 percent of the salary; the Brewers, obviously, are taking on 40 percent of the salary. If I have the numbers right, that means the Brewers are only paying him $3.45M the rest of the season...of course, they could easily be on the hook for $17.5M next season.

    According to Olney, that would be the most money paid to a relief pitcher for a single season IN HISTORY.

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  10. Sean,
    I am the real Dog. I threw insults at the idiot Sharky elsewhere. I only speak in a condescending manner to a select few people who get exactly what they deserve. That only happened after they started with me. I'm on many blogs with no problems. I just had a problem with a couple of arrogant antis who posted their opinions that were wrong as facts and insulted everyone that had anything positive to say about my beloved Buccos. I have been vilified every since for pointing out how wrong those arrogant people were. I think all of you will see if you don't insult me I won't insult you, but I don't just sit back and take abuse.
    Dog

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  11. Dog--

    I didn't ask you, I asked the person with the avatar titled, "Who is the real Dog?" to reveal his identity. You clearly identified yourself.

    Chill, dude.

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  12. @ SeanAY

    Found this on Hardballtalk.

    "The assumption is that Rodriguez didn’t have the Brewers on his no-trade list and thus couldn’t block the deal that almost certainly will prevent his $17.5 million option for 2012 from vesting.

    Rodriguez’s option would kick in with 55 games finished this year, which is the big reason the Mets wanted to move him. The Brewers won’t want to be responsible for that kind of payout, so they’ll use him as an eighth-inning guy in front of John Axford for the remainder of the season and then likely let him leave in free agency."

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  13. @ Steelfan--

    I'll be honest...I guess I didn't completely understand the whole "games finished" stat. For some reason, I was thinking he only needed to get into 21 more games to trigger the option. Stupidity on my part.

    As long as Axford continues to pitch well and/or doesn't get hurt, this should be a steal for the Brewers. If Axford is put out of commission for some reason, though, the Brewers will have a big decision to make about Rodriguez's use.

    A very shrewd move for them, and one that might signify that the Mets have officially given up on the 2011 season. Beltran will probably be next, I'd imagine.

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  14. You were a huge asshole on Smizblog which is why you were banned twice. I have never been banned. Somehow I'm the idiot?

    You made up stories and posed as your own brother trying to get sympathy when the blog had had enough of your antics. There were calls to have you banned by both Pros and Antis alike both times it happened. Yet you sneak back in using another profile.

    We all knew you were philmickelson because you don't hide very well. You lied and whined when you were accused and called for me and others to be banned because you "weren't the Dog". Smizik is the idiot for allowing you back in time and again. You always end up causing too many problems. I like to think I had a hand in both your previous bannings by driving you so mad you finally flipped.

    I really think you have mental issues. Probably multiple personality disorder.

    I also know you are several other profiles that post on there regularly. You aren't smart enough to conceal yourself and you always end up giving yourself away. I do think it's funny when you congratulate another of your profiles on a great post.

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  15. Why do teams back load contracts with ridiculous options like that? It always causes them to hold back a player so it won't kick in or cause them to have to trade the player. Kind of like the Freddy Sanchez deal several years back.

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  16. "Beltran will probably be next, I'd imagine."

    Yep, looks that way.

    "New Carlos Beltran trade rumors link him to the San Francisco Giants. It appears that the Carlos Beltran trade rumors involve as many as seven teams that have weighted interest in acquiring the All-Star outfielder from the New York Mets.

    ESPN's Buster Olney stated that, "Right now, six and perhaps as many as seven teams indicating real interest in Carlos Beltran." That could mean that every contender that needs help with offense has been calling, and it could include the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and even the Seattle Mariners.

    So what would the Giants be willing to offer in order to get Beltran? Well, the speculation is that pitching prospect Zach Wheeler could make the deal happen. If it does, then the Mets will likely have to pay a big chunk of Beltran's salary for the remainder of the 2011 season. Wheeler is a pretty good asset as well, coming to the Giants in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft.

    The Mets appear as though they won't have to try hard to find a trading partner for Beltran, and it could all come down to how much they are willing to pay in salary to get this deal done. The key will be to not take too long in the decision-making process though, because some of the teams might fall out of contention and become sellers in this market. With the Mets trading Francisco Rodriguez already this week, a deal might be just days away with Beltran."

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  17. I 2nd sharky's post about philsnakekgbdoggiedog

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  18. Sharky,
    You had nothing to do with me getting banned. I posted as philmickelson for 10 weeks before the first accusation came up about me being me. There were no issues that any had with me or me with anyone.

    I never posed as my own brother. I put him up to that and he was very pissed afterwards because of the shit. My wife did have a miscarriage, but I am happy to say she is pregnant again (14 weeks). That was when she lost it last time after getting her car totaled.

    I am not any other poster on there. That has been proven, but you aren't one to ever admit to being wrong. You have falsely accused close to or even more than a dozen people of being me. I think your obsession with me is the real mental disorder. My mental disorder is being extremely optimistic of my favorite team. Lastly you have never even caused me to get the least bit excited as you never actually bring anything to the table. No offense, but your knowledge of the Pirates is too limited to even worry about.
    In regards to the Smizik blog. I never started anything with anyone. The over the top negative neds just hated my optimism and started hurling insults at me. I'm pugnacious by nature and don't take kindly to unprovoked attacks. I will come out swinging. I have proven by going undetected on two separate occassions for over two months both times that I can get along with both pros and antis alike. I'm willing to let your childish antics go and your completely inaccurate accusations too. Let's just talk Pirates. Sorry Sean.
    Dog

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  19. Did I hear some barking?

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  20. HAHAHA sharky you let the Dog piss you off and you're a grown ass man at least in your 40's. Why do you whine about his having muliple screen names? Quit being a fag and grow up.

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  21. Quit being a fag?

    Great, the 10 year olds have infiltrated this blog.

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  22. LEt's try to keep any ethnic and/or homophobic slurs out of the conversation please.

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  23. This is usually what happens on blog comments. Civility is left at the door.
    I can tell you that even though you guys try not to delete anyone, it will sometimes be necessary.
    On to the topic at hand, I think the Pirates should trade for Carlos Pena of the Cubs. He would be an upgrade over Overbay. Too bad he would be just a rental but since that is all he is, I wouldn't give up much. Since Bob Nutting seems to want to trade cash instead of prospects, maybe the Cubbies would go for an all cash deal.
    Then again, in trading with the Cubs somehow the Pirates always seem to get the short end of the stick so it may not be such a good idea.

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  24. You will ever have to delete my posts. I can't stand that crap.

    In regards to trades, my guess is that Pena is the most likely out of all the people mentioned. Sometimes trades come out of left field. I jut hope the Pirates don't trade their left fielder the last time they tried that it didn't work out too well.
    Dog

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