Thursday, June 16, 2011

The Impossible Dream?

In order to finish the 2011 campaign with a .500 record, the Pittsburgh Pirates would have to improve their W/L record by 24 games from the 2010 season. That is not at all impossible; the Tigers did exactly that from 2005 to 2006, going from 71 to 95 wins..The Rays improved by 31 games from 2007 to 2008, going from 66-96 to 97-65, making a 24 game turnaround look extremely possible.  The 2006 Tigers increased their payroll from about  $69 Million to $82 Million, $13 million dollars or so. The Rays shift in salary was far more drastic, nearly doubling the $24M spent in 2007 to almost $44M in 2008. The Bucs increased their payroll from $35 Million in 2010 to $45 million in 2011. Fairly comparable numbers, more on that later.

In Houston last night, the Bucs took another step towards proving they are extremely interested in making a notable turnaround. While the offense came in struggling a bit and Charlie Morton didn't have his best stuff, the Bucs took their 3rd straight W to move to 34-33 on the season. They did what a team playing for a winning season should do, dispatching a hapless Houston bunch who appears to be doing little more than collecting their paychecks. But in a tight division such as the NL Central every win is huge and none should be taken for granted. As we sit here now, the Bucs are currently in 4th place in the Central, but only 4.0 games out of first. The Bucs are in 5th place in the Wild Card chase, only 3.0 games out there. The NL Central, oft referred to as the Comedy Central, has 4 teams currently posting winning records. While it is the only division in all of baseball housing 6 teams, only the AL East is having a better overall season so far.

The Bucs struck first last night after Cutch drew a 2 out walk in the first and the Pride of PR drove him home with an RBI triple. Even while slumping, Walker is clutch and drives in big runs for this team. Morton found himself in trouble early, loading the bases in the bottom of the first, but he was able to get out of it untouched. The top of the 2nd featured the first MLB hit for newly acquired Sherman Tank catcher Michael McKenry. The ball he lined firmly into left field then became an innings long discussion between Walkie and Mr. Sunshine, explaining MLB authentication processes, who you can and can't trust with an authentic ball, where Walkie's ball from his first W is located, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on. Honestly, this went for what seemed like weeks.

Morton looked more like his 2011 self in the bottom of the 2nd, mowing down the Astros in order. The Bucs added to their lead when batting vs lefty specialist, but only hitting .220 against lefties Matt Diaz drove a 1 out double down the LF line. Cutch popped out on what looked like a blooper that was going to drop, bringing up the Pride of PR with a RISP and 2 outs. Anybody who has been following this team knows exactly what happens next: Walker gets Diaz in with a single and the Bucs have a 2-0 lead. The bottom of the 3rd was a little bit rocky, with Morton surrendering back to back singles to start the inning before striking out the next 2 batters. Just when he appeared to pull another Houdini, Brett Wallace singled to to score the 'Stros first run of the series. After a Brandon Wood error, Morton had the bases loaded for the second time in 3 innings. Again, he didn't flinch, getting Clint Barmes to ground into an inning ending FC.

The top of the 4th didn't feature much outside of a Cedeno single but in the bottom of the 4th, the Astros tied it at 2. After a leadoff walk to the 8 hitter J.R. Towles, pitcher JA Happ sacrificed him to second and Michael Bourn singled him home, advancing to second on the throw. Bourn, the MLB leader in steals, swiped third but was stranded there as Morton retired the next 2 batters. The Bucs threatened in the 5th, with Cutch smacking a 1 out double and the Pride of PR drawing an IBB. Overpaid grounded into an FC that put runners on 2nd adn 3rd and Wood walked to load the bases for McKenry. Unfortunately, he could not duplicate his earlier feat and left the bases loaded, contributing to the 13 runners LOB, 9 in scoring position. The Astros took a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 5th when Barmes doubled in Chris Johnson.

The Bucs took the lead right back in the top of the 6th, though. Xavier Paul, pinch hitting for Morton, doubled to LCF and Tabata followed with a single but couldn't get the speedy Paul home. GI Jones then replaced Diaz and rewared Jake Taylor with an RBI single to tie it at 3-3. Cutch reached on an error, scoring Tabata and giving the lead back to the good guys, 4-3. Walker's sac fly scored Jones and the Bucs had a 5-3 lead and 2 extra runs courtesy of the Astros Free Runs Charity!

The Guy Who Cried came on to the pitch a scoreless bottom of the 6th and Paul hit a 2 run HR in the top of the 7th to open the lead to 7-3. That would do it for the scoring on the night, as the Guy Who Cried worked scoreless 7th and 8th innings as well. Future All Star Chris Resop started the 9th by fanning Carlos "Land Mass" Lee, but allowed the next 2 batters to reach, forcing Jake Taylor to lower the Hammer. As has been the case for all of this season, Hanrahan got it done and earned his 19th save in 19 attempts. Dude is FLAT OUT money. Final count, Bucs 7, 'Stros 3.

Player of the Game- Neil Walker ( pronounced Nill in proper Pixburghese). 2 for 3 with 3 RBI , 2 of them with 2 outs, He added a sac fly and walk, with four very productive at bats in 5 attempts. Xavier Paul was 3 for 3 off the bench with 2 RBI, 2 runs and a HR.
Head Scratcher of the Game- Did the Bucs equipment manager get McKenry the ball he actually hit or just pull a spare out of the bag? The world may never know, but Walkie and Mr. Sunshine were all over it.
Face Palm of the Night: More Astro's errors = more Pirates runs. That team is absolutely awful and this is coming from a guy who has been a Pirate fan since birth in 1983, even the last 19 years!

Overall, winning when you're not at your best is important. It's one thing to win a game when everybody is firing on all cylinders, because that is what should happen. The Bucs left a lot of guys on base last night and Morton struggled: 5 IP, 3 ER, 8H, 2 BB, 3K. His WHIP was 2.00, well above his season average of 1.44 (which is still high due to walks). The offense had Charlie's back and showed up when we needed it. Can't say enough about Cutch and Walker's contributions. Cutch is hitting .293 with 10 HR and 38 RBI, translating to 24 HR and 92 RBI, also on pace to score 94 runs. Walker's 45 RBI in 67 games are good for 8th in the NL and he is on pace for 21 HR and 109 RBI. That kind of production from those 2 guys is good enough by itself, let alone if there was a guy who could whack 30-35 HR in there somewhere.

At 34-33, the Bucs are playing solid baseball right now and if they can continue at this pace, I think we will all be able to rejoice. But HONESTLY, who can say they really expected this to be the year this team turned it around? The addition of $10 Million to payroll was mostly in the form of acquiring Snyder at the trade deadline last year and signing Overpaid. Snyder is alright, but is as injury prone as No-Mitt. Overpaid is streaky and lacks HR power, batting .229 with 5 HR and 25 RBIs. Obviously, the pitching is getting it done and the key addition there was a $4M journeyman, Correia, who looks like a bargain steal right now.

You don't have to completely break the bank to compete, but you have to put the money in the right place. Having $12 million dedicated to 2 catchers who are fairly average, and both injury prone, is probably not wise. The team needs a power bat, and I understand that is supposed to be Alvarez, but while his annual hit is currently $2M, we can certainly afford to add another big stick in there to protect the other hitters. Oh, and our payroll is still 27th out of 30.

Tonight, the Bucs have a good chance to complete the sweep and head to the Mistake by the Lake 2 games above .500. J-Mac needs to pick up where he left off saturday and get over the hump of a 4-4 record.The offense needs to convert RISP into runs and after my complaining about lack of XBH, they notched 6 last night. Here's to hoping this is the beginning of a power surge that pushes the Bucs closer in the playoff chase.

6 comments:

  1. My only concern is that there do not seem to be many of those typical trade deadline bats available this year. Unfortunately, I can't provide links, but Buster Olney has basically said all year on his blog that it's not just boppers in short supply, but quite frankly there are few good bats available in general.

    I'm not even talking about "mortgaging the future," per se. It just seems like there won't be many big bats dealt at the deadline anywhere.

    That said, the Pirates don't necessarily need to find a bopper to be successful at the deadline - although it would help. If they could find someone that could hit .270, maybe give them 10-15 HR, from RF they'd be ok. You can always use more bullpen help down the stretch.

    ReplyDelete
  2. And that should be 10-15 HR a year; if someone gave them 10-15 HR from July 31 onward, that would be slightly better. But right now there is exactly ZERO power threat in the line-up. I just don't know where else they'll find power.

    ReplyDelete
  3. It would be nice if there was one such bat on the verge in the minors. All those pitchers are nice but they don't score runs very often. maybe it is time to trade a few pitching prospects for someone who can hit.

    I think it would be nice if NH looked across the river at Ray Shero and did what Ray does. Actually sign good free agents in the offseason.

    NH is like 1 for 20 in that regard. Corriela (sp?) is the only one worth a crap so far.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sharky--

    I agree in principle, but disagree on the details.

    Ray Shero has a billionaire owner (and while you can argue that Bob Nutting is pocketing lots of money, his profit + revenue drawn still probably doesn't touch $100M), and he's in a league with a hard salary cap where he doesn't have to compete in a haves/have nots situation.

    I'd say the best the Pirates can hope for is bringing up Presley and hoping he can help spark the offense. Getting Kdro healthy and hitting like he did in the second half of the season last year would be the biggest thing they could do. But right now, I don't know that there's much they can add from the outside.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This afternoon's game should be VERY interesting. If they can sweep the Stros and be 2 games OVER .500 heading into interleague play it will at least give them a little bit of a buffer to work with.

    Having to play in American League parks and wrangle a DH out of this light hitting lineup is going to be a definite disadvantage, but if they have a little momentum going in, we may be looking up in the standings rather than the down at the minors for salary dump acquisitions come the trade deadline.

    ReplyDelete
  6. BurressWithButterflyWingsJune 16, 2011 at 10:02 AM

    Sean,

    Your point regarding having a big money owner and a hard cap are well taken, but I think it's what Shero does with the money left under the cap is what makes him a solid GM. Fedotenko, Brent Johnson, Dupuis, Rupp, and Craig Adams were all nice acquisitions for relatively low prices. He also knew when to pull the trigger on getting Dooper and Hossa and took a big risk trading Whitney for Kunitz and Tangradi. He failed with Ponikarovsky, but he didn't give up a whole lot to get him.Jury is out on Neal, who I think is a very good player.

    It doesn't take a genius to draft Crosby or Malkin or Fleury and sign them up. But adding the right compliments is a huge asset for a GM. Obviously, just throwing money at a guy is not a great method: see Snyder, Daniel.

    But if Nuthouse can't afford to pay competitive, realistic prices, he should sell to someone who can. Perhaps that Billionaire owner you were referring to, apparently he's interested.

    ReplyDelete