If you want to read a good, balanced article from a guy who understands both small markets and the game of baseball, go check out Grantlands Rany Jazayerli's take on the season the Pirates are having right now.
He sums up my feelings quite well on how and why these Pirates should approach this trade deadline with an aggression and boldness that is both necessary and owed to the longtime fans in this city.
"They would need unexpectedly good performances from unheralded players, and they would need their NL Central rivals to underachieve. They would need a season, in other words, like the one they're having right now."
This IS our year. It may have come sooner then "the plan" but it needs to be seen as a rare and precious opportunity, for winning, for respect, and for relevance.
"The Pirates can't do that this year. No matter how flimsy their record is, those wins and losses are in the bank, and no team can betray its fan base by throwing in the towel when they're a half-game back. If they can't be sellers, they might as well be buyers."
There is no guarantee of success, and more likely than not they will not win a championship by pursuing this strategy. But standing still dooms them to a certain fate and all the good will being built up this year will wither and die, like a flower that blooms before Spring’s final frost.
"Sure, it's unlikely that the Pirates will stay in the thick of the NL Central race for the next 70 games. But that's nothing compared to how improbable it is that they've stayed in the race until now. Resurrecting a franchise often requires a miracle. The Pirates are more than halfway there."
The way I see it, the Pirates need 3 definite, indespensible things to happen to win the division:
1) The Pitchers must continue to pitch over their heads/paygrade
2) Pedro must return to form and have a late season surge like last year
3) They must add one quasi-elite bat for the middle of the lineup
They can then fill out a lineup card somewhere along these lines for August and September.
1. Pressley/Tabata (LF)
2. Walker (2B)
3. McCutchen (CF)
4. Alvarez (3B)
5. Beltran/Pence (RF)
6. Doumit (C)
7. Jones/Overbay (1B)
8. Cedeno (SS)
9. Over Achieving Pitcher
I wouldn't be opposed to a scenario that involves sliding the fragile, but necessary batter, Doumit to 1B if neither Jones nor Overbay pulls it together and leave McKenry at the plate. OR, if they could pick up Pena at 1B you could slot him in at 4 just as well, bump Pedro to 5, and let the Jones/Diaz platoon handle RF in the 7 spot. But that is all in the minutia.
The over riding point: outside of Taillion and Heredia, no prospect should be untouchable to bring in a hitter to make a miraculous run this season. This is our shot. C'mon NH, FC, BN! Let's do it.
Completely agree.
ReplyDeleteBFD made a great point on Smiz that only 25 percent of first rounders even make it. Those are odds I'm willing to take.
Marte is EASILY expendable especially if Pence is the return. We'd have Pence, Cutch, Tabata and Presley blocking him anyways for the forseeable future. Plus we have MANY arms in A. Cain, ZVR, Pounders, Allie, Taillon, Heredia.
Marte, Allie (listed as PTBNL), and maybe a throw away AA or AAA guy or even another above listed A pitcher for Pence. I don't see how that couldn't positively affect this team not only this year, but for at LEAST 2 more years.
I agree with most of you now. THE TIME IS NOW!
Geez, I must be wearing flip flops now.
@ Fish--
ReplyDeleteThat's right! You know you're never allowed to change your opinion on something!
I don't think they're going to be able to get a "quasi-elite bat" like Pence or Beltran, and I think it's going to have just as much to do with what other teams are willing to offer as the Pirates' willingness to make the move in the first place.
Beltran is honestly more conceivable than Pence, because it seems like taking on cash will be the primary focus rather than elite prospects. But both players are being heavily pursued by teams like the BoSox, Phillies, Braves, etc. That bidding war could push the Pirates out.
@SeanAy: From what I've heard the Mets want prospects more than $$$ actually for Beltran. Could be a smoke screen, but that seems to be what national reporters are saying.
ReplyDeleteIf you are going to give up prospects anyway, wouldn't you rather do it for a durable, younger all star in his late 20s that you can have locked in for two more years like Pence than a pure rental like Beltran?
Offer Houston GI Jones, Brad Lincoln, Stetson Allie, and Starling Marte right now for Pence and a throw in and see if they bite. That would be my bold move. Is it a high cost? Yes. But I'd hardly say you are blowing up the farm system for such a deal. There would still be plenty left for the future and you'd lock in a very steady bat for two months and two more years on top of that.
SeanAY,
ReplyDeleteI see what your saying, but it's been a long held belief that the Pirates have to and will need to OVERPAY for free agents, and maybe the same should be said for trades.
Maybe we need to make a better offer than the rest. A deal like this could put us in good shape for 2-3 years. Or more.
Then we take the saved money from this year and sign Cutch to 6-8 years and Pence for 6 years. Two superstars in the making to build around. Ala, with Giles and Kendall, except Pence and Cutch are not past their primes as those two clowns were at the time.
Maybe the heat and this winning is frying my logical thinking brain, but we need to go for it, IMO.
I'd keep Brad Lincoln around. With all these pitchers going over their career highs for innings we're going to need him next year when 3/5 of the rotation is on the DL.
ReplyDeleteThe time is not now. This team's organizational depth is still thin and lacking in elite prospects. Selling off a few top prospects for a rental like Beltran, when you ain't winning the World Series anyways, is a stupid and emotional decision that ensures a bad year next year and possibly beyond. This team needs to continue to accumulate assets, not sell them off.
I don't remember who wrote it but someone national on the web last week wrote how the Pirates should be sellers at most, selling Overbay, Diaz, etc if there's any interest, but not buyers. That's the stance I take. Saying things like "the organization owes it to the fans" (which I have seen a lot recently) suggests making a trade base on emotion, which is one of the dumbest things you can do in sports.
Add a bat, fine, get Pena or Willingham or whatever cheap (in terms of prospects) token acquisition you can make and move forward. But talk of adding the top free agent on the market, Beltran, is laughable. He'll go to a real contender.
I don't think Beltran is a possibility at all. But there's nothing wrong with desiring a guy with his abilities to add to a team missing what he can bring.
ReplyDeleteI look at Pena and Willingham as good potential acquisitions as well. The Bus still sit in first place right now, so they are as real a contender as anybody. Adding some offense to a team lacking in that area is a good baseball move, right?
Or maybe accepting another couple losing seasons is a better idea?
"Adding some offense to a team lacking in that area is a good baseball move, right?"
ReplyDeleteSure it is, if the cost isn't too much. But some people want to condemn the Pirates if they don't go out and get the top damn bat on the market when the top bat isn't helping this team achieve the ultimate goal.
I'd make as many cash moves as possible. If the Pirates can get Pena for straight cash and a middling prospect, do it. Same for anyone else. But I'm not trading any of the top 5 prospects at all, which is what a guy like Beltran would cost.
I agree about the price needing to be right, but if you don't have the prospects to give up, then you gotta pay cash to acquire Pena.
ReplyDeleteThe Bucs at one point even said they'd rather pay cash for an acquisition. The problem is that we are starting to hear "Pirates are not looking to take on significant salary". I would consider Pena's salary significant. So if they aren't willing to pony up cash and don't have the prospects to give up, then the hold up is absolutely, positively on them.
It's like in Step Brothers when they ask if the divorce is their fault and the brother says: "of course it's their fault, they're the two biggest dickheads in the world, and they're living in your house."
One thing I haven't been hearing lately is trade rumors about Maholm. I wonder if he is in the mix in Neal's mind? It would have to be a trade with another contender because he is potentially a rental unless his option for next year is picked up.
ReplyDeleteIf he isn't traded either by 7/31 or the waiver trade deadline, does anyone see the Pirates picking up his $9.75 million option? There hasn't been contract extension talks between the parties yet.
Dale--
ReplyDeleteLike the NFL, I more or less view MLB as a deadline-oriented league. There probably haven't been contract extension talks yet because they don't need them yet; the Pirates have an option on Maholm, and if they feel comfortable giving him 9.75 next season, they can just exercise that option and worry about it in the offseason, or next year.
In all honesty, the Pirates could probably look at that 9.75 figure and realize it's a bargain, considering what lesser pitchers are getting. They were ready to give de la Rosa 10M last year, and when you compare his body of work to Maholm, it's not even close; Maholm has been the better picture for a longer time, even excluding his performance this season.
I highly doubt that the Pirates will ultimately let Maholm walk away for nothing at any point; unlike Doumit, he's got real trade value. Therefore, if they don't trade him at the deadline (and I don't expect them to), then I think you'll see them pick up the option for next year and THEN work on a long-term deal (if that is their intention).
@Burress
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reply. I'll say this - "the time" IS now when it comes to spending money. If there's a trade out there where 95% of the value to the returning club is cash, make the move or the front office should DEFINITELY have their feet held to the fire. I know the rumors about the Pirates not wanting to add significant salary, but I just dismiss that because until it happens they are still only rumors.
I'm just saying that if there's a deal to be made based on cash and it's passed up, then holy hell am I gonna be pissed. I'm definitely with you there. But if they pass up a guy like Pence because the asking price in terms of young players/prospects is too high, then I will applaud the prudence the Pirates would have shown.
"
ReplyDeleteIf he isn't traded either by 7/31 or the waiver trade deadline, does anyone see the Pirates picking up his $9.75 million option? There hasn't been contract extension talks between the parties yet."
I fully expect them to. The time to spend money is now. That's a good rate for a lefty with his numbers.
Best case Nutting scenerio is to lose heading into the deadline. This allows for no moves to be made & no additions to payroll. The regimes true goal is .500. It puts butts in the seats With little pressure to add to payroll while pointing to prospects in the future.
ReplyDeleteBFD
@ BFD
ReplyDeleteIf what you say is true, could that be the real explanation for keeping Kdro down on the farm while having Wood and Chase D. "filling in"?
I wouldn't put it past Nutting. A little losing streak right before the deadline would be a good excuse to do nothing.
If the Pirates then managed to stay in the hunt after the deadline without adding any salary, all the better for him.